2025-26 Ski Jumping Preview Part 3: Breakthrough

Breakthrough Potential

In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to break through this year.

By breakthrough I mean people who score more than 40% of the maximum possible World Cup points in a given season. Since 2016, this has only been done by around 14 men and 14 women. For this analysis, I looked at the characteristics (age, experience, Elos, etc.) of all skiers who broke that 40% barrier for the first time in their career, and then created a model to apply to the current skiers who have not accomplished the feat. Here are some of the top contenders.

In 2025, the breakthrough athletes were Daniel Tschofenig, Jan Hörl, Selina Freitag, and Eirin Maria Kvandal. Note: Johann Forfang and Marius Lindvik would be second and third on the men’s list, but given their suspension they will have to wait a year.

Men

Kristoffer Eriksen Sundal (NOR, 24)

Sundal, one of the Norwegians caught up in the jumping scandal but without a suspension in the 2026 season, will be Norway’s top dog heading into the season. Sundal began to find his groove in the latter half of the 2024 season, and in 2025 continued that progress with 14 top-10 finishes. Although he placed on only one podium, his improvement year over year, youth, and consistency make Sundal the top contender for a breakthrough season.

Domen Prevc (SLO, 26)

Only 26 years old, 2026 will mark Prevc’s 11th season on the circuit. Although it seemed inevitable in 2017 that Prevc would be the future of the sport after placing 14th and sixth overall in his first two seasons, it was not until 2025 that he cracked the top 10 again. Last season, Prevc struggled mightily at the beginning until the latter half of the season where he was able to win three races and six podiums in addition to the gold medal in the Large Hill in Trondheim. Hopefully, Prevc has regained the form and confidence of his teenage years and can fulfill his potential as a jumper.

Gregor Deschwanden (SUI, 34)

A longtime results sheet filler, Deschwanden had the best season of his career in 2025 by finishing sixth overall. A hero to those who make steady progress, 13 of his 21 top-seven finishes came in the 2025 season. If there has been one consistency over Deschwanden’s career it has been improvement from season to season. Although he is already 34 years old, it is not wise to bet against Deschwanden making World Cup gains until proven otherwise.

Maximillian Ortner (AUT, 23)

Essentially a rookie in the World Cup scene in 2025, Ortner busted out of the gate with a podium in the first event of the season in Lillehammer. After that superb performance, he failed to maintain consistent results and finished outside the top 10 of the World Cup. Still, Ortner has two major indicators of potential growth: youth and inexperience. Should there be a wildcard performer who breaks through this season, there is a good bet it is Ortner.

Honorable Mentions

Pawel Wasek, Ren Nikaido, Timi Zajc, Manuel Fettner

Ladies

Lisa Eder (AUT, 24)

With four of her five career podiums coming in 2025, Eder appears to be the future of Austrian ski jumping. 2025 marked a major improvement for Eder, who has been around since she was a 16-year-old in 2018, by finishing sixth overall, just ahead of her teammate Eva Pinkelnig. With Marita Kramer and Jacqueline Seifriedsberger retiring, and Pinkelnig being 37 years old, Eder will have to step up for her nation this Olympic year.

Thea Minyan Bjørseth (NOR, 22)

Bjørseth seems more primed than any woman to break through in 2026. Although she had to leave the season early before the World Championships, Bjørseth was able to amass the first four podiums of her career as just a 21-year-old. Already a great talent, Bjørseth has improved mightily since entering the senior ranks and fans should have an eye on her to break through in 2026.

Abigail Strate (CAN, 24)

Strate has been teetering on excellence for several seasons now as the great Canadian hope seems to lack the consistency necessary for high placings in the World Cup Overall. Still, her first big bump came four years ago, so hopefully the added focus and preparation of an Olympic season can push Strate to the next level.

Honorable Mentions

Agnes Reisch, Nozomi Maruyama, Josephine Pagnier

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