2025-26 Nordic Combined Preview Part 3: Breakthrough

Breakthrough Potential

In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to break through this year.

By breakthrough I mean people who score more than 50% of the maximum possible World Cup points in a given season. Since 2016 (2021 for ladies), this has only been done by around 13 men and 13 women. For this analysis, I looked at the characteristics (age, experience, Elos, etc.) of all skiers who broke that 50% barrier for the first time in their career, and then created a model to apply to the current skiers who have not accomplished the feat. Here are some of the top contenders.

Men

Thomas Rettenegger (AUT, 25)

Thomas Rettenegger, older brother to Stefan, seemed poised for a breakthrough 2025 season after a 2024 campaign that was filled with 12 top-10 finishes. Unfortunately, it was a step back for the Austrian, finishing the season with five top-10s before an early exit in February due to injury. A comeback from Rettenegger would be massive for an Austrian team that has a good chance at winning its first relay at a major championship since 2011. However, without any podiums to his name, it will be difficult to reach that 50% marker.

Wendelin Thannheimer (GER, 26)

Thannheimer had the best season of his career in 2025. Prior to last season, he had zero top-10 finishes in six seasons. In 2025, that number became five including a career-high fourth place in Otepää. Another year or two of similar progress will have Thannheimer easily pass the 50% mark and have him comfortably on the German relay team.

David Mach (GER, 25)

In 2024, it appeared that Mach was going to be the next big thing in German Nordic Combined. Only 23 at the time, he finished the season with four top-10s and a podium in Otepää. Now entering his sixth season, Mach needs to show more of that form if he wants to keep getting starts for a deep German squad. Given how he had improved year over year until 2025, I would bet in favor of Mach making that jump.

Honorable Mentions

Terence Weber, Martin Fritz

Ladies

Minja Korhonen (FIN, 18)

Only 18 years old, Korhonen has been knocking on the door of a breakthrough for the past two seasons. During that time she has placed almost exclusively in the top 10 and has podiumed twice. With more race experience under her belt, the young talent has the best chance of anyone to make a name for herself this season.

Ingrid Låte (NOR, 18)

Another 18-year-old, Låte only had four starts last season and in them she placed 9-9-4-4. I won’t pretend to follow Norwegian 18-year-olds’ lives closely enough to know if she will have a more extensive racing schedule this season, but if she does, it is fair to say she has a great chance of finishing near the upper end of the standings.

Léna Brocard (FRA, 25)

Brocard has been on the circuit since the inaugural season in 2021 and has produced her best results in the past two seasons. In 2025, Brocard had 10 top-10s, a career high, and a best finish of fifth. Brocard is hampered by not having a large contingent of French women in the sport, but more and more experience has meant progress for her. If she continues that improvement into 2026, she may reach that 50% marker.

Tia Malovrh (SLO, 17)

Like Låte, Malovrh raced only four times in 2025, but performed solidly in the ones she did. Being only 16 at the start of last season, any experience at all would have been seen as a win, but by finishing exclusively in the top 20, Malovrh will have a lot to work off of if she competes again in 2026.

Honorable Mentions

Maria Gerboth, Alexa Brabec, Yuzuki Kainuma, Cindy Haasch

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