Ruka 2025 Predictions

Introduction

Welcome to the first race of the season. In this post and more to follow, I will present the likely starting list for the weekend as well as race by race predictions for odds as well as expected points

Sources

Overall:

https://xcancel.com/FantasyXC

Canada

https://proxcskiing.com/traditional-skiing/

Czechia :

Finland:

Norway

Sweden

https://langd.se/traditionell-langdakning/

Switzerland

USA

https://nordicinsights.news/2024/

Predicted Points

Men

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Skier	Nation	Race1_Points	Race1_Probability	Race2_Points	Race2_Probability	Race3_Points	Race3_Probability

Skier	Nation	Race1_Points	Race1_Probability	Race2_Points	Race2_Probability	Race3_Points	Race3_Probability
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo	Norway	79.90	1	91.99	1.00	77.92	1.00
Harald Østberg Amundsen	Norway	65.16	1	57.72	1.00	71.08	1.00
Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget	Norway	71.67	1	0.00	0.00	76.62	1.00
Iivo Niskanen	Finland	66.21	1	34.87	1.00	41.47	1.00
Erik Valnes	Norway	64.68	1	72.25	1.00	0.00	0.00
Federico Pellegrino	Italy	48.28	1	39.89	1.00	42.09	1.00
Pål Golberg	Norway	67.74	1	0.00	0.00	57.66	1.00
Simen Hegstad Krüger	Norway	41.12	1	0.00	0.00	81.56	1.00
Antoine Cyr	Canada	40.04	1	44.20	1.00	28.72	1.00
Calle Halfvarsson	Sweden	50.06	1	40.91	0.85	18.78	0.52

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Skier	Nation	Race1_Points	Race1_Probability	Race2_Points	Race2_Probability	Race3_Points	Race3_Probability

Skier	Nation	Race1_Points	Race1_Probability	Race2_Points	Race2_Probability	Race3_Points	Race3_Probability
Jessie Diggins	USA	57.19	1	50.18	1.00	90.48	1.00
Jonna Sundling	Sweden	64.41	1	89.62	1.00	30.49	0.46
Therese Johaug	Norway	85.30	1	0.00	0.00	91.56	1.00
Kerttu Niskanen	Finland	72.01	1	42.70	1.00	61.73	1.00
Rosie Brennan	USA	52.70	1	47.78	1.00	52.11	1.00
Krista Pärmäkoski	Finland	59.66	1	42.48	1.00	45.65	1.00
Ebba Andersson	Sweden	67.77	1	2.84	0.10	70.33	1.00
Johanna Matintalo	Finland	54.15	1	48.08	1.00	33.62	1.00
Frida Karlsson	Sweden	68.20	1	14.80	0.28	51.23	0.75
Heidi Weng	Norway	61.17	1	0.00	0.00	69.04	1.00

Showing 1 to 10 of 87 entries

Race Odds

10km Classic

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Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American

Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo	Norway	20.9%	15.8%	11.7%	48.4%	63.9%	82.5%	93.9%	4.79	2.07	1.57	1.21	1.07	379	107	-177	-472
Erik Valnes	Norway	10.5%	10.1%	9.3%	29.9%	46.4%	70.7%	90.0%	9.51	3.34	2.15	1.41	1.11	851	234	115	-241
Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget	Norway	10.1%	9.8%	9.1%	29.0%	45.4%	69.9%	92.9%	9.90	3.45	2.20	1.43	1.08	890	245	120	-232
Iivo Niskanen	Finland	9.6%	9.4%	8.9%	27.9%	44.2%	68.9%	93.4%	10.42	3.59	2.26	1.45	1.07	942	259	126	-222
Harald Østberg Amundsen	Norway	9.3%	9.2%	8.7%	27.2%	43.5%	68.3%	91.5%	10.73	3.67	2.30	1.46	1.09	973	267	130	-216
Pål Golberg	Norway	7.1%	7.4%	7.4%	21.9%	37.2%	62.8%	90.8%	14.07	4.57	2.69	1.59	1.10	1307	357	169	-169
Jens Burman	Sweden	3.2%	3.6%	4.0%	10.8%	21.8%	45.5%	85.6%	31.60	9.27	4.58	2.20	1.17	3060	827	358	120
Calle Halfvarsson	Sweden	3.0%	3.4%	3.8%	10.2%	20.9%	44.2%	82.3%	33.52	9.79	4.78	2.26	1.22	3252	879	378	126
Simen Hegstad Krüger	Norway	2.8%	3.2%	3.6%	9.6%	20.0%	42.8%	84.5%	35.84	10.41	5.01	2.34	1.18	3484	941	401	134
Antoine Cyr	Canada	2.3%	2.6%	3.0%	7.9%	17.1%	38.6%	76.3%	44.08	12.62	5.84	2.59	1.31	4308	1162	484	159

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Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American

Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American
Therese Johaug	Norway	18.5%	16.1%	13.6%	48.2%	52.2%	77.8%	97.6%	5.40	2.07	1.91	1.29	1.02	440	107	-109	-350
Frida Karlsson	Sweden	11.5%	11.0%	10.2%	32.7%	40.2%	69.2%	95.2%	8.71	3.06	2.49	1.44	1.05	771	206	149	-225
Katharina Hennig	Germany	8.9%	8.7%	8.5%	26.1%	34.1%	64.1%	90.4%	11.30	3.83	2.93	1.56	1.11	1030	283	193	-178
Ebba Andersson	Sweden	8.4%	8.4%	8.2%	25.0%	33.0%	63.0%	93.2%	11.88	4	3.03	1.59	1.07	1088	300	203	-170
Heidi Weng	Norway	6.7%	6.8%	6.9%	20.3%	28.2%	58.2%	92.4%	14.97	4.92	3.54	1.72	1.08	1397	392	254	-139
Kerttu Niskanen	Finland	5.2%	5.4%	5.6%	16.2%	23.6%	52.8%	87.1%	19.17	6.16	4.23	1.89	1.15	1817	516	323	-112
Teresa Stadlober	Austria	5.1%	5.3%	5.5%	15.9%	23.2%	52.3%	86.3%	19.63	6.30	4.31	1.91	1.16	1863	530	331	-110
Rosie Brennan	USA	4.5%	4.7%	4.9%	14.1%	21.1%	49.6%	89.3%	22.27	7.08	4.73	2.02	1.12	2127	608	373	102
Jessie Diggins	USA	4.2%	4.5%	4.7%	13.4%	20.2%	48.3%	93.7%	23.55	7.46	4.94	2.07	1.07	2255	646	394	107
Krista Pärmäkoski	Finland	4.1%	4.4%	4.6%	13.1%	19.9%	47.8%	86.2%	24.10	7.63	5.03	2.09	1.16	2310	663	403	109

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Sprint Classic

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Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American

Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo	Norway	36.6%	17.7%	9.6%	63.8%	83.8%	91.3%	99.3%	2.73	1.57	1.19	1.09	1.01	173	-176	-516	-1054
Erik Valnes	Norway	19.7%	17.2%	12.8%	49.7%	67.9%	82.5%	98.4%	5.09	2.01	1.47	1.21	1.02	409	101	-212	-471
Even Northug	Norway	5.2%	7.2%	7.9%	20.3%	34.5%	57.3%	94.0%	19.30	4.93	2.90	1.75	1.06	1830	393	190	-134
Lauri Vuorinen	Finland	4.8%	6.7%	7.5%	19.1%	33.0%	55.7%	93.6%	20.80	5.24	3.03	1.79	1.07	1980	424	203	-126
Richard Jouve	France	4.2%	6.1%	6.9%	17.2%	30.4%	53.1%	92.9%	23.57	5.82	3.29	1.88	1.08	2257	482	229	-113
Calle Halfvarsson	Sweden	3.7%	5.2%	5.9%	14.8%	26.2%	45.6%	79.4%	27.24	6.74	3.82	2.19	1.26	2624	574	282	119
Ben Ogden	USA	3.7%	5.4%	6.2%	15.2%	27.7%	50.1%	92.1%	27.13	6.56	3.61	1.99	1.09	2613	556	261	-101
Johan Häggström	Sweden	3.7%	5.3%	6.2%	15.1%	27.5%	50.0%	92.0%	27.38	6.61	3.63	2	1.09	2638	561	263	100
Harald Østberg Amundsen	Norway	2.2%	3.3%	4.1%	9.6%	19.1%	39.4%	87.9%	45.92	10.47	5.23	2.54	1.14	4492	947	423	154
Håvard Solås Taugbøl	Norway	2.0%	3.1%	3.8%	9.0%	18.2%	38.1%	87.3%	49.03	11.12	5.49	2.62	1.15	4803	1012	449	162

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Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American

Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American
Jonna Sundling	Sweden	24.7%	18.7%	14.0%	57.4%	71.7%	86.1%	96.1%	4.05	1.74	1.40	1.16	1.04	305	-135	-253	-620
Linn Svahn	Sweden	16.5%	13.4%	10.5%	40.4%	51.6%	63.6%	72.6%	6.05	2.47	1.94	1.57	1.38	505	147	-107	-174
Nadine Fähndrich	Switzerland	12.4%	12.6%	12.0%	36.9%	53.8%	75.3%	92.7%	8.07	2.71	1.86	1.33	1.08	707	171	-117	-305
Maja Dahlqvist	Sweden	9.7%	10.5%	10.6%	30.9%	51.3%	73.6%	81.4%	10.26	3.24	1.95	1.36	1.23	926	224	-105	-278
Johanna Hagström	Sweden	6.7%	7.8%	8.5%	23.0%	43.9%	68.0%	93.6%	14.86	4.35	2.28	1.47	1.07	1386	335	128	-212
Emma Ribom	Sweden	5.7%	5.7%	5.5%	16.9%	25.1%	34.7%	43.6%	17.63	5.92	3.99	2.88	2.29	1663	492	299	188
Jessie Diggins	USA	5.0%	6.0%	6.9%	17.8%	29.1%	54.0%	89.3%	20.07	5.61	3.44	1.85	1.12	1907	461	244	-117
Laura Gimmler	Germany	2.2%	2.9%	3.5%	8.7%	17.9%	39.7%	89.7%	44.61	11.54	5.58	2.52	1.11	4361	1054	458	152
Rosie Brennan	USA	1.9%	2.5%	3.1%	7.5%	13.2%	32.2%	91.4%	51.69	13.25	7.55	3.11	1.09	5069	1225	655	211
Tiril Udnes Weng	Norway	1.9%	2.4%	3.0%	7.3%	17.2%	38.6%	82.6%	53.80	13.76	5.81	2.59	1.21	5280	1276	481	159

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20km Freestyle MS

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Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American

Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo	Norway	24.3%	16.8%	11.8%	52.9%	68.7%	82.3%	90.2%	4.12	1.89	1.46	1.21	1.11	312	-112	-219	-466
Simen Hegstad Krüger	Norway	12.5%	11.4%	10.0%	33.9%	50.1%	69.8%	83.4%	8.02	2.95	2	1.43	1.20	702	195	-100	-232
Harald Østberg Amundsen	Norway	9.5%	9.3%	8.7%	27.5%	42.8%	64.0%	89.7%	10.57	3.63	2.34	1.56	1.12	957	263	134	-178
Pål Golberg	Norway	5.6%	6.0%	6.2%	17.9%	30.4%	52.3%	85.5%	17.83	5.60	3.29	1.91	1.17	1683	460	229	-110
Federico Pellegrino	Italy	5.5%	6.0%	6.1%	17.6%	30.0%	51.9%	76.1%	18.11	5.68	3.33	1.93	1.31	1711	468	233	-108
Valerio Grond	Switzerland	4.2%	4.7%	5.0%	13.9%	24.7%	46.0%	27.0%	23.64	7.17	4.04	2.18	3.71	2264	617	304	118
Gus Schumacher	USA	3.1%	3.5%	3.9%	10.5%	19.5%	39.2%	69.9%	32.26	9.51	5.13	2.55	1.43	3126	851	413	155
Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget	Norway	2.9%	3.3%	3.6%	9.8%	18.3%	37.6%	88.9%	34.93	10.23	5.47	2.66	1.12	3393	923	447	166
Jan Thomas Jenssen	Norway	2.3%	2.7%	3.0%	8.0%	15.3%	33.2%	73.0%	43.43	12.53	6.53	3.01	1.37	4243	1153	553	201
Joni Mäki	Finland	2.2%	2.6%	2.9%	7.8%	15.0%	32.7%	35.9%	44.67	12.87	6.68	3.06	2.78	4367	1187	568	206

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Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American

Skier	Nation	Win_Prob	Second_Prob	Third_Prob	Top3_Prob	Top5_Prob	Top10_Prob	Top30_Prob	Win_Decimal	Top3_Decimal	Top5_Decimal	Top10_Decimal	Top30_Decimal	Win_American	Top3_American	Top5_American	Top10_American
Therese Johaug	Norway	19.5%	15.0%	11.3%	45.9%	66.2%	84.4%	98.2%	5.12	2.18	1.51	1.18	1.02	412	118	-195	-542
Jessie Diggins	USA	16.9%	13.9%	11.0%	41.8%	62.3%	82.2%	95.5%	5.91	2.39	1.61	1.22	1.05	491	139	-165	-462
Heidi Weng	Norway	8.5%	8.6%	8.2%	25.3%	44.0%	69.5%	95.4%	11.72	3.95	2.27	1.44	1.05	1072	295	127	-227
Ebba Andersson	Sweden	7.7%	7.9%	7.7%	23.2%	41.3%	67.2%	95.5%	13.05	4.30	2.42	1.49	1.05	1205	330	142	-205
Rosie Brennan	USA	5.2%	5.7%	5.9%	16.8%	32.2%	58.5%	92.8%	19.23	5.95	3.11	1.71	1.08	1823	495	211	-141
Frida Karlsson	Sweden	4.3%	4.6%	4.8%	13.8%	25.9%	45.8%	72.6%	23.13	7.26	3.86	2.19	1.38	2213	626	286	119
Victoria Carl	Germany	4.1%	4.5%	4.9%	13.5%	27.0%	52.7%	92.1%	24.64	7.40	3.70	1.90	1.09	2364	640	270	-111
Kerttu Niskanen	Finland	4.0%	4.5%	4.9%	13.3%	26.7%	52.3%	92.7%	25.04	7.51	3.74	1.91	1.08	2404	651	274	-110
Delphine Claudel	France	3.4%	3.9%	4.3%	11.5%	23.7%	48.5%	65.3%	29.44	8.68	4.21	2.06	1.53	2844	768	321	106
Teresa Stadlober	Austria	2.6%	3.0%	3.4%	8.9%	19.2%	42.2%	92.6%	38.83	11.18	5.21	2.37	1.08	3783	1018	421	137

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Fantasy Team

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Skier	sex	Nation	Price	Total_Points

Skier	sex	Nation	Price	Total_Points
Jonna Sundling	f	Sweden	11536	184.51
Kerttu Niskanen	f	Finland	9183	176.43
Ebba Andersson	f	Sweden	7994	140.95
Krista Pärmäkoski	f	Finland	4296	147.79
Teresa Stadlober	f	Austria	3572	125.56
Astrid Øyre Slind	f	Norway	3567	114.23
Johanna Matintalo	f	Finland	2345	135.86
Laura Gimmler	f	Germany	1441	89.22
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo	m	Norway	15622	249.81
Harald Østberg Amundsen	m	Norway	13062	193.96

Showing 1 to 10 of 16 entries

Ruka 2025 Predictions

Introduction

Sources

Overall:

Canada

Czechia :

Finland:

France

Germany

Italy:

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

USA

Predicted Points

Men

Ladies

Race Odds

10km Classic

Men

Ladies

Sprint Classic

Men

Ladies

20km Freestyle MS

Men

Ladies

Fantasy Team

CATALOG

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