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Ruka 2025 Recap

Introduction Week one is done! Check out who did well and who was a turkey. Race 1 (Distance Classic) Skier Nation Before Elo After Elo Elo Difference …

Ruka 2025 Predictions

Introduction Welcome to the first race of the season. In this post and more to follow, I will present the likely starting list for the weekend as well …

2024-25 Preview Part 3: Breakthrough and Age Analysis

Breakthrough Potential In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to breakthrough this year, give an age analysis of the field, and …

2024-25 Preview Part 2: World Cup Standings

World Cup Standings Predictions Background In Part 2, I will be giving the overall standings predictions as a proportion of maximum World Cup points …

2024-25 Preview Part 1: Introduction & Schedule

2024-25 Season Preview Introduction It’s near Thanksgiving time and you know what that means. The 2024-25 FIS Cross Country season is here! In …

Scraping Ski Data for Statistical Analysis

How to get your data

Goal: Getting the Data Needed to Perform Statistical Analysis The first step to perform any meaningful statistical analysis is to get the data needed. …

All-Time Rankings Methodology

Overview All-time rankings are calculated using a weighted points system that awards points for podium finishes (top 3) across major competitions. …

Championship Predictions Methodology

Overview Championship predictions use the same core methodology as race-picks but with key differences: Probability only - No points predictions are …

Elo Calculations Methodology

Overview Elo ratings are calculated for all winter sports using a multi-player extension of the standard Elo formula. The system tracks athlete …

Race Picks Methodology

BLUF Race predictions use Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with BIC-optimized feature selection. Key predictors are Elo rating percentages …

Bored Data Scientist in Washington DC. Perenniel American Birkebeiner skier, and devout club runner